Findings

Long-form analyses where a specific question is resolved against the sources. Every claim shows where it came from. Every disagreement is named.

• 13 May 2026 Where the NDIS saving actually comes from. The Budget books $36.2 billion in NDIS savings over five years and calls the package "Securing the NDIS for future generations". The Department of Health publishes four pillars led by "fighting fraud and stopping rorts". The data tells a different story. The regulator's own register shows the fraud-and-rorts lever has plateaued (276 standing permanent bans, strong actions down 21 per cent on this time last year). The arithmetic puts the saving's centre of gravity in Thriving Kids, the $4 billion program that moves children under 8 with mild-to-moderate developmental delay or autism off the NDIS from January 2028. The framing did not lead with that.
• 12 May 2026 The Budget, against the ATO's own data. The case-study worker on $81,245 out-earns the median taxpayer in 98 per cent of Australian postcodes (98.3 per cent of all taxpayers). The negative gearing reform creates 7,500 owner-occupiers a year against 2.21 million existing investors. Three budget claims tested against the ATO's most recent postcode-level data.
• 12 May 2026 Reading the 2026-27 Budget against itself. What the appendix tables say about the press kit. Income tax rises as a share of GDP despite five tax cuts. Negative gearing reform builds zero new houses. The fuel package is mostly off-balance-sheet. Eight observations a forensic reading turns up.
• 12 May 2026 The fuel excise cut, by car. 32 cents a litre is universal. The dollar value is not. In Melbourne CBD, 71.8 per cent of households reported no motor vehicle on Census night. In commuter shires from Wollondilly to Litchfield, two in five report three or more.
• 12 May 2026 The NDIS reform, mapped against need. 1.46 million Australians reported core activity need for assistance in 2021. Fraser Coast Regional has the highest share (10.8 per cent). Brisbane City has the highest count (56,680). Where the $36.2 billion saving lands.
• 12 May 2026 Future Made in Australia, where it would land. The manufacturing package and the $53 billion Defence boost target a sector employing 714,189 Australians (6.45 per cent of the working population). Whyalla, Gladstone, and Greater Dandenong run densest. Fairfield in Western Sydney appears in three different top-ten rankings tied to this Budget.

Coming next: Manningham-in-Adelaide. A Melbourne council that a federal dataset has placed in South Australia.