The NDIS reform, mapped against need

The Budget calls the change "Securing the NDIS for future generations". The substance is $36.2 billion of slower scheme growth over five years, achieved by tightening who gets on, and what they get when they do. The Census records 1.46 million Australians who need daily help with self-care, mobility or communication. About 660,000 of them are on the NDIS today. This finding asks the simple question: where do those Australians actually live, and what does the package look like in the places where it lands hardest?

Companion to The 2026-27 Budget, against the data, section 7. That finding shows that the dollar weight of the saving cannot come from fraud elimination alone. The remainder must come from people who would have been on the scheme but now will not be, or who are on the scheme and will receive less, or who will move to the new childhood-disability program called Thriving Kids.

The national pool

The Australian Bureau of Statistics defines "core activity need for assistance" as needing help with self-care, mobility, or communication because of a long-term health condition, disability, or age. The 2021 Census recorded 1,461,928 Australians in this category, 5.76 per cent of the population.¹

This is not the same as the count of NDIS participants. The Scheme has around 660,000 active participants today. The Census figure is a wider population: it includes older Australians on aged-care supports, people on state-based disability services, and Australians with severe long-term needs who never made it onto an NDIS plan. Where the Census line and the NDIS line overlap is at the permanent-disability end. The Budget's reform reaches across the whole overlap, not just current participants.

Over half (54.2 per cent) of Australians with core activity need for assistance are 65 or older. The 0 to 14 cohort, 160,059 children, is the population the Thriving Kids program is structured to migrate off NDIS plans. The working-age cohort (15 to 64) totals around 509,000.

Where the highest shares sit

Aggregating the Census table to local government areas, sorted by the share of population reporting core activity need for assistance:²

Nine of the top ten are regional or coastal. Fraser Coast, Gympie, Bundaberg, South Burnett and Mid-Coast trace a continuous stretch of the Queensland and northern New South Wales coast. Victor Harbor, Central Goldfields, and George Town are smaller regional shires with older populations. The single urban exception, Fairfield in Western Sydney, is by far the largest of the ten by raw count: 19,285 residents with need for assistance, a number larger than the total population of George Town.

Where the largest absolute counts sit

Sorted by raw count rather than share:³

Six of the top ten by raw count are in Queensland. The Brisbane urban region (Brisbane City, Moreton Bay, Logan, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast) alone accounts for 168,797 residents with need for assistance, more than the entire population of Hobart.

The Fraser Coast intersection

One council area appears at the top of two different rankings in this analysis: highest share of need-for-assistance, and lowest median household income among large councils.

Of the 11 Australian LGAs with population over 50,000 and median household income under $1,300 per week, all 11 also sit above the national average for core-activity need. Fraser Coast, Gympie, Bundaberg, Mid-Coast, Clarence Valley and Tweed are the clearest cases. The intersection of older age, lower income, and higher disability rate is geographically consistent: regional coastal Queensland and northern New South Wales.⁴

The Budget couples the $36.2 billion NDIS saving with $3.7 billion in additional aged-care investment, a $25 billion public hospital commitment, and a permanent Medicare Urgent Care Clinics program. The Government has not yet published where the new clinics or aged-care places will land. The Census is clear on where the demographic the package addresses already lives. Fraser Coast and a handful of regional Queensland and northern NSW coastal towns bear the brunt of the cut. The same places stand to gain most from the corresponding spending.

What this finding does not establish

Census "core activity need for assistance" is not the same as NDIS eligibility. The Census count (1.46 million) is roughly 2.4 times the active NDIS participant count (around 660,000). The overlap is partial, mostly at the permanent-disability end. The figures in this finding describe where the broader need lives, not where every current participant lives.

The finding does not allocate dollars to council areas. The Government has not published a participant-by-council breakdown of NDIS spending. The National Disability Insurance Agency's quarterly tables and dashboards report at the broader Service District or Statistical Area Level 3 resolution, not at the council level.

The 2021 Census is now four years old. The age profile of need is slow-moving and the geographic distribution is durable; the count is current as of August 2021 and will be refreshed by the 2026 Census, due August 2026.

Sources

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2021, table G18 (Core Activity Need for Assistance by Age by Sex). National aggregate computed by summing across all Australian local government areas. 1,461,928 persons in the "Need for assistance" cell; 25,369,903 total persons.
2. Same source as note 1, joined to the Australian Statistical Geography Standard local government area boundaries. Filter: LGAs with at least 5,000 residents.
3. Same source as note 2, ranked by absolute count.
4. Same source as note 1, combined with the Census 2021 figures for population, median age, and median household income at the council level. Filter: councils with at least 50,000 residents and median household income under $1,300 per week.
5. Commonwealth Treasury, Budget Overview 2026-27, "Securing the NDIS for future generations" (page 44), "Strengthening Medicare" (page 46), "Better care for older Australians" (page 45), and Appendix D ("Major Budget improvements"). The $36.2 billion figure is the five-year saving recorded in Appendix D; the text and speech reference a $37.8 billion four-year figure.
6. National Disability Insurance Agency, Quarterly Report to Disability Reform Ministers, recent editions. Active participant counts approximately 660,000 nationally. Geographic breakdowns are published at the Service District or SA3 level, not by LGA.

Methodology

Every number in this finding comes from one ABS Census 2021 table (G18) summarised to council areas using the ABS Statistical Geography Standard. The Fraser Coast intersection cross-references the same Census release's median-age and median-household-income figures at the council level.

Where the finding draws an inference (the Brisbane urban region as the largest absolute cluster, the regional-coast pattern, the Fraser Coast intersection), the inference rides on top of the numbers in the tables. The mapping from Census need-for-assistance to NDIS-eligible population is approximate and named as such.

First published 12 May 2026, as companion to The 2026-27 Budget, against the data. Will be revised against the 2026 Census release, due August 2026.